Paper research. No broker is connected. Written 27 September 2026.
Plenitrade is a paper research desk for quieter stocks. The agreed hurdle is to beat the S&P 500 after trading costs over a full year that the rule was not fit on. Nothing has been frozen, and no real money has been sent to a broker.
Twenty-five smaller operating companies, kept because their typical daily dollar volume sits between about $300,000 and $25 million. Examples: Acme United, Clearfield, Haverty Furniture, Inogen, J.Jill, OrthoPediatrics, SI-BONE, and Weyco. Prices are Yahoo Finance daily bars. The company’s own Form 8-K filings come from SEC EDGAR.
| Window | S&P 500 |
|---|---|
| 7 Apr 2026 – 25 Sep 2026 | about +18% |
| 25 Sep 2025 – 25 Sep 2026 | about +18.5% ($250,000 became about $296,000 after a tiny spread) |
Each equation was fit on an earlier period and scored on a later one. R² is the share of later price moves the fit lined up with. A higher R² on the fit is not a prediction. A rule is kept only when the later period made money after costs and beat the hurdle, and a measurement was large enough to write down. Rough size around 2 is the bar for writing a measurement into its own sentence.
| Test | Fit | Later paper result | Judgment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price measurements. The writable rule was buying after a weak prior 20 sessions. | R² about 0.6% on the six months before 7 Apr 2026. | Made money, about $291,000 from $250,000, and finished behind both the quieter-stock hold and the S&P pace. | Not kept. |
| Contract and earnings filings. | No measurement was large enough. | A book that ranked names on the leftovers finished a little higher than holding the stocks. That is not a filing effect. | Not kept. |
| Wording of the 8-K: opinion, agreement, certainty, specificity, promotion. | R² about 0.4%. Promotional adjectives were large enough to write down. | On the six months from 7 Apr 2026, the wording book finished near $490,000 and the promotional rule near $383,000. Clearfield, Acme United, and J.Jill did most of the work. | Not frozen. This test was added after that window had already been scored. |
| Industry attention. Six repeated words from each annual report filed before 25 Sep 2025. The count is English Wikipedia reading interest over the prior 28 days. | R² about 2.8%. A rise in attention lined up with a weaker next 20 sessions (rough size −2.7). The rule buys when interest is cold. | 25 Sep 2025 – 25 Sep 2026: about $353,000 from $250,000, ahead of the S&P at about $296,000. 48 entries. | Cleared the mechanical bar for that one year. Not frozen. The news archive refused the connection, so this is Wikipedia, and several pages are the wrong topic. |
Trade magazines, paid “undiscovered stock” letters, Reddit, and blogs were not turned into a regression. For these companies the free public writing is mostly the company itself, on the wires and in SEC filings. A usable outside archive would need the outlet, the full text, and the publication time, saved from the earlier year before anyone looks at who won. GDELT is the free news-volume database for that design. It returned “too many requests” from the network that ran the test, which is why industry attention fell back to Wikipedia.
The equations are on the front page. The day-by-day filing blotter is at /desk.